If Poland rejects the treaty, are early elections possible?

The heated debate over Poland's hesitation to ratify the Lisbon Treaty continues. The tension has risen, as the ruling Civic Platform started talking about early elections if Poland should decide not to ratify the treaty.

Piotr Zaremba of the 'Dziennik' daily says parties are just testing each other's nerve. In his opinion, early elections would be favorable to the current government of Donald Tusk, whereas the battle over the treaty might confuse the voters of the Law and Justice.

Janusz Rolicki of the tabloid 'Fakt' says that leader of the opposition Law and Justice party, and formerly the Prime Minister of Poland Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has gone too far in his opposition to the treaty and will probably back off. In case of early elections, this commentator too predicts a stunning victory of the Civic Platform.

Stanisław Janecki of the weekly 'WPROST' is of the opinion that the Lisbon summit was the former government's failure, which they tried to make look like a success. Now they are trying to make up for it. In this commentator's opinion, another early elections after last year's might discourage the voters to the extent that the ruling Civic Platform, although supported by many today, might suffer a spectacular failure. At the moment, the true support for the government does not exceed 35%, says Janecki, and a heated election campaign might make some supporters change their political preferences.

Piotr Semka of the 'Rzeczpospolita' daily says that Prime Minister Donald Tusk is using the circumstances to provoke the major opposition Law and Justice party to look like radical Euro-sceptics and the threat of early election is supposed just to scare the public opinion. The ruling Civic Platform also wants to look even more pro-European, adds Semka.

Polish Member of the European Parliament and history professor Wojciech Roszkowski warns that the fight over the Lisbon Treaty may damage the image of Poland in the European Union. In his opinion, two largest political powers are to blame for the chaos.

The opposition Law and Justice party, formerly in the government, is pressured from two sides. One is the current Civic Platform party government, which insists on ratifying the whole treaty, including the controversial Charter of Fundamental Rights. On the other hand, a large part of the Law and Justice party supporters would like to reject the whole Treaty. In this situation, what the professor calls the Lisbon compromise is difficult to be implemented. At the same time, the ruling Civic Platform party should not be increasing the political tensions around the already hot debate, by talking about pre-term elections, should the treaty be rejected, adds the professor.